*Updated 5/6*

Once again, Doe-Anderson’s Run for the Rankings based on tweets did the best job of picking the top horses in the Kentucky Derby.  

Doe-Anderson analyzed tweets and developed a ranking system for all horses in the Derby. Leading up to the big race, the eventual winner, long shot Country House, was ranked first or second in our system. Shortly before post-time, Country House’s final ranking position was fifth – far ahead of the betting public or the news media. 

The chart below shows where each horse was ranked based on the betting public at Churchill Downs, the amount of news coverage and social media posts on Twitter. 

 

Horse

Order of FinishSocial Media RankNews Media RankTrack RankFinal Odds
Country House15141865-1
Code of Honor21013614-1
Cumulative rank of top 2 finishers 152724 
Tacitus32535-1
Cumulative rank of top 3 finishers 173227 
Improbable47314-1
Cumulative rank of top 4 finishers 243528 
Game Winner53146-1
Cumulative rank of top 5 finishers 273632 
Master Fencer612171758-1
Cumulative rank of top 6 finishers 395349 
War of Will798716-1
Cumulative rank of top 7 finishers 486156 
Plus Que Parfait813181657-1
Cumulative rank of top 8 finishers 617972 
Win Win Win9112716-1
Cumulative rank of top 9 finishers 629179 
Cutting Humor101961124
Cumulative rank of top 10 finishers 819790 


Last year, Doe-Anderson’s Run for the Rankings based on tweets was also the best at predicting the top finishers. See chart below. Doe-Anderson’s Run for the Rankings

 

Horse2018 FinishTwitter RankBetting Public
Justify111
Good Magic246
Audible324
Cumulative rank 711

 

So, how is Doe-Anderson’s Run for the Rankings calculated? On the social media side, it takes the total number of tweets that mention each horse over the past seven days. Using a social media monitoring service, Crimson Hexagon, the tweets are rated as either neutral, positive or negative. Positive tweets help boost a horse’s ranking. 

A similar method is used to create the ranking system based on news stories. Using data provided by Meltwater, a media-intelligence service, a simple count of news stories about each horse is tabulated. Meltwater’s algorithm ranks the stories as either neutral, positive or negative. Again, positive stories help boost the overall ranking of a horse. 

While we don’t advocate this as a betting tool, it seems to show that those who tweet know what they are talking about.